On March 6, 2024, India inaugurated a new naval base on Minicoy Island, strategically located in the southwestern region and serving as the closest point to the Maldives archipelago. This move comes after India hosted the multinational naval exercise Milan 2024 in the port city of Vizag, which saw the participation of over 50 countries. Additionally, in January of the same year, New Delhi deployed a substantial naval force near the Red Sea, consisting of 12 warships, to safeguard vessels against piracy attacks. These developments raise questions about the growing role of the Indian Navy, its implications, and the challenges it faces.
Signs of Expansion
In recent years, the Indian Navy has been playing an increasingly important role in both the Indian Ocean and international waters. This can be seen through various indicators, including:
1- Expansion of external naval bases:
India's military strategy involves gradually deploying its maritime forces by establishing naval bases within its own borders as well as on islands and ports of other countries. As part of this strategy, the Indian Navy recently inaugurated a new naval base on March 6, 2024, on Minicoy Island in the southwest of the country. This move was made to compensate for the withdrawal of military personnel from the Maldives, which occurred shortly afterwards. Furthermore, India has established and rehabilitated several naval bases on islands near major straits leading to the Indian Ocean. Additionally, starting in 2007, India has set up various naval and air bases outside its territory. One notable example is the surveillance and radar monitoring station in Madagascar, which is considered India's first military base overseas.
2- Strengthening existing naval forces:
On February 3, 2024, India launched its first Sandhayak-class survey vessel, with 80% of components locally manufactured. This vessel is the first large reconnaissance ship in the Indian Navy and its main mission is to enhance maritime navigation security, among other maritime operations. Over the past ten years, the Indian Navy has also constructed more than 12 missile and torpedo-armed warships and submarines. Currently, construction of 64 out of 66 contracted ships and submarines is underway in Indian shipbuilding yards. Looking ahead, India aims to acquire between 155 and 160 warships by 2030, with plans to increase the number to 175 by 2035. To enhance maritime security measures, the Indian Navy is deploying advanced technology, including surveillance systems, drones, and communication tools. As part of India's increased defense spending for the 2023-24 financial year, the Navy's share in the defense budget was raised to 19% last year.
3- Maritime cooperation with other countries:
India has actively pursued stronger maritime defense cooperation with other countries through the establishment of strategic partnerships and participation in joint naval exercises. In 2021, the Indian Navy conducted approximately 50 exercises with friendly naval forces, including training exercises with Japanese warships in the Malacca Strait. Additionally, India's involvement in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which consists of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, has further enhanced collaboration on maritime security matters. In 2022, India became an associate member of the U.S.-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), which aims to ensure secure navigation in the Gulf region. The regular joint exercises conducted by the fleets of these four countries are viewed as part of a broader effort to address China's increasing influence in the Pacific Ocean.
4- Providing naval assistance to Indian Ocean Island countries:
India maintains strong maritime cooperation with countries surrounding its territory, especially coastal and island states in the Indian Ocean. For instance, the Indian Navy assists Mauritius in monitoring its exclusive economic zone, managing national coast guards, providing maritime reconnaissance equipment and training, as well as conducting hydrographic surveys. In the same context, India’s Navy and Coast Guard assist the Seychelles in maintaining security through maritime monitoring, training, providing maritime military equipment, and repair operations.
5- Providing aid:
The Indian Navy seeks to demonstrate its influence through humanitarian missions. In 2015, more than 26 countries, including the United States, turned to New Delhi for assistance in evacuating their citizens when the civil war in Yemen intensified. Six Indian warships rescued four thousand Indian citizens, as well as 1,200 foreigners, before the port of Aden was bombed. During 2020 and 2021, Indian vessels sailed 40,000 miles to supply food, medicine, and weapons to Indian Ocean countries. In December 2021, an Indian warship sailed to Mozambique for the first time carrying weapons and humanitarian aid.
Motivations of New Delhi
Several considerations have recently prompted New Delhi to deploy its naval forces abroad. These can be outlined as follows:
1- Enhancing its international role:
India sees itself as a state that should play a significant role in addressing international and regional maritime crises, given its increasing capabilities, interests, and international status. To achieve this goal, New Delhi has worked on expanding and modernizing its naval forces to activate its role as a great power in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region, ensuring the establishment of a global system based on rules. The Indian Navy is thus making efforts to maintain peace, prosperity and security in the region.
2- Competition with the Chinese navy:
Given the historical animosity between India and China, India is closely monitoring the increasing strength of the Chinese navy in the Indo-Pacific region. This challenge has prompted India to prioritize the acquisition of more ships, submarines, and advanced aircraft, as well as to increase investment in technology and infrastructure. India's drive to build more naval bases is motivated by the need to counterbalance the growing power of China's navy.
3- Concerns over maritime cooperation between China and Pakistan:
India has expressed concerns over the growing maritime cooperation between China and Pakistan. In particular, India is worried about China's efforts to enhance military relations with Pakistan, its historical enemy, especially in the maritime domain. One of the most notable examples of this cooperation is the Sea Guardian joint maritime exercise, which took place in November 2023 in the Arabian Sea. The exercise focused on joint responses to maritime security threats. China has also been providing Pakistan with modern submarines and frigates, and there is a high likelihood that China will build a naval base in Gwadar. Gwadar is a Pakistani port that was constructed by Beijing as part of the economic corridor project between the two countries.
4- Increasing threats to navigation in strategic waterways:
India has expressed concerns over the growing maritime cooperation between China and Pakistan. In particular, India is worried about China's efforts to enhance military relations with Pakistan, its historical enemy, especially in the maritime domain. One of the most notable examples of this cooperation is the Sea Guardian joint maritime exercise, which took place in November 2023 in the Arabian Sea. The exercise focused on joint responses to maritime security threats. China has also been providing Pakistan with modern submarines and frigates, and there is a high likelihood that China will build a naval base in Gwadar. Gwadar is a Pakistani port that was constructed by Beijing as part of the economic corridor project between the two countries.
5- Protecting economic interests and energy security:
India is concerned about the attacks on ships in the Red Sea and their impact on its economic interests, particularly foreign trade and oil imports. India's commodity trade with Europe, which relies on the Red Sea for 80% of its transportation, could potentially suffer losses of up to $30 billion this year if cargo ships are forced to take an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope. The lack of security in the Red Sea could also disrupt the Russian oil supplies that India's growing economy relies on, directly affecting the country's overall interests.
Significant Implications
The increasing deployment of the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean and the high seas entails several important implications, which can be explained as follows:
1- Shifts in Indian foreign policy:
The growing role of the Indian Navy reflects shifts in New Delhi's foreign policy. Previously, the focus was primarily on ensuring India's internal unity and managing the long-standing conflict with Pakistan. However, India's increasing naval deployment confirms its outward orientation policy, which aims to demonstrate India's ability to achieve security in neighboring regional countries. It is also consistent with India's growing economic capabilities, which qualify it to play a more influential role on the international stage. Furthermore, maritime security has now become a strong pillar for New Delhi's foreign policy commitments, particularly in response to maritime challenges from China. India's strategic thinking, which prioritizes the sea, not only enables effective crisis response but also enhances the country's geopolitical and strategic priorities in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific region.
2- India's rise as a strong actor in maritime diplomacy:
India has emerged as a strong actor in maritime diplomacy, with the Indian Navy adopting the Mission-Based Deployment (MBD) pattern. This strategy involves positioning mission and combat-ready vessels in areas where operations are taking place, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, or the Malacca Strait, rather than keeping them at port. The implementation of mission-based deployment has not only enhanced regional interoperability but has also allowed India to collaborate with other navies in improving maritime security. Additionally, these deployments have solidified India's position as a key player in maritime awareness, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief. Furthermore, New Delhi has actively engaged in disaster risk reduction and crisis management, further bolstering its role in the maritime domain.
3- Maritime coordination with Washington:
Although India has not joined the US-led task force in the Red Sea, there is ongoing coordination between the two countries to address attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. During a meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024, Blinken emphasized that the US and Indian approaches to maritime security in the Red Sea are mutually reinforcing. He also highlighted the important roles both countries play in safeguarding economic stability in the region.
Indian naval operations reflect the growing cooperation with the US Indo-Pacific strategy, which primarily focuses on countering China's influence in the region. In early 2024, the Biden Administration approved a sale of MQ-9 Reaper (also known as Predator B) drones and military equipment to India, totaling nearly $4 billion. These resources are intended to enhance maritime safety and surveillance capabilities.
Challenges to the Ascent
The Indian Navy has achieved significant success in recent times, but it is not without its challenges. Some of the key challenges it faces include:
1- Limited naval forces resources:
The Indian Navy's capabilities are being strained by the ongoing attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Despite the increasing pace and scope of its operations in the region, the Navy's resources are limited. This raises questions about India's ability to sustain its deployment of forces. Furthermore, the lack of funding poses a threat to India's ability to keep up with countries like China. Most of its submarines, which are two decades old, are now outdated. Plans to expand its fleet to 200 ships and procure a third aircraft carrier are constantly being delayed.
2- Beijing's dominance in the South China Sea:
India's limited maritime presence in the South China Sea region is a cause for concern, given the significant Chinese maritime assets that dominate the area. This is particularly worrisome for New Delhi, as approximately 60% of Indian goods pass through shipping lanes controlled by China.
3- Setbacks to India's ambitions in the Indian Ocean:
India's determination to build military facilities in the Seychelles is facing numerous challenges. Moreover, India is encountering opposition from neighboring countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka, while China has been successful in these regions.
4- Militarization of the Indian Ocean:
The number of foreign warships deployed in the Indian Ocean has significantly increased to an estimated 125, exceeding the number during World War II. While the Indian Navy is conducting more patrols and has the largest number of warships ever, there are concerns about its ability to maintain dominance in the Indian Ocean due to the rapidly growing strength of the Chinese Navy.
In conclusion, the Indian navy's recent activities in international waters are driven by multiple considerations and motivations. One of these motivations is New Delhi's aspiration to become a great power in a multipolar international system. Additionally, the Indian navy aims to confront the growing power of the Chinese navy in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, the success of India's maritime ascendance is contingent upon overcoming several challenges. The foremost challenge is the continued development and modernization of India's naval capabilities and potential, which is crucial in order to surpass or at least offset China's naval power.
To achieve this, it is necessary to establish a roadmap with a specific timeline and allocate significant financial resources to spearhead New Delhi's aspirations and ensure the realization of its goals.
